Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 11.880974 13.585905 15.434779 17.586856 20.021194 22.687582 25.827698
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 9.575656 11.905680 14.634199 18.057870 22.231405 27.145932 33.364110
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 8.389631 11.002191 14.214327 18.440196 23.838563 30.487919 39.282536
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 7.245662 9.965674 13.458297 18.250191 24.629845 32.804528 44.043995
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 6.307819 9.045109 12.695603 17.890215 25.057705 34.559821 48.066448
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 5.672238 8.446687 12.275522 17.905821 25.927481 36.890195 52.941560
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.230063 8.061466 12.092627 18.199929 27.157255 39.738917 58.658179
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.806678 7.653295 11.826530 18.328180 28.125564 42.242742 64.002505
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 4.366484 7.171779 11.401059 18.167676 28.629843 44.073397 68.440088
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.062719 6.869479 11.212805 18.336066 29.615474 46.641589 74.090698
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 3.887231 6.752975 11.296446 18.921019 31.263519 50.282405 81.558932
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 3.567080 6.367759 10.917543 18.730369 31.659484 51.995923 86.106134
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.109714 5.716303 10.063031 17.713445 30.675591 51.515550 87.212428
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.963073 5.590396 10.074563 18.140922 32.094953 54.966530 94.873302
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.825613 5.466357 10.075081 18.540752 33.479793 58.420862 102.710734
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.605436 5.170859 9.750915 18.344550 33.818122 60.136896 107.710167
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.382717 4.849845 9.354208 17.984511 33.834897 61.291060 111.789879
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.233595 4.656016 9.173082 17.999629 34.514335 63.614004 118.011404
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.133963 4.550011 9.146077 18.295387 35.716295 66.909860 126.117112
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.020967 4.406968 9.036717 18.424211 36.610571 69.694915 133.440847
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.882971 4.200305 8.787606 18.262931 36.941339 71.465170 138.992232
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.792996 4.085971 8.711138 18.432151 37.909321 74.448243 146.926431
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.753006 4.074917 8.840786 19.020007 39.724375 79.101484 158.225676